Leading scientists urged caution over fears of another pandemic on Thursday after the World Health Organization requested more information from China on a rise of respiratory illnesses and pneumonia clusters among children. On Wednesday, the agency notified its global networks of a request to get patient lab data and more details on how the surge impacts healthcare systems. A WHO statement said it was a “routine request” and the agency’s “standard procedure” for such outbreaks.
Concerns were first sparked internationally by an alert published on Tuesday by the monitoring service ProMED, part of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, which calls for more information about “undiagnosed pneumonia – China (Beijing, Liaoning)” and cites local news reports. It adds that the illness could be related to influenza, mycoplasma pneumonia (a common bacterial infection that typically affects younger children), and respiratory syncytial virus, which is similar to COVID-19. China’s National Health Commission reported a rise in respiratory infections at a press conference last week. It attributed the surge to lifting COVID-19 restrictions and the spread of endemic pathogens.
But experts Fortune spoke with remained unconvinced the new cases pointed to an emerging pathogen. Instead, they are more likely to be a collection of simultaneous peaks of familiar diseases that tend to happen at the same time each winter, as well as a case of what experts call “immunity debt,” the result of last year’s lockdowns that led people to miss getting the vaccines for influenza and other endemic respiratory viruses.
The experts were frustrated that the Chinese CDC wasn’t forthcoming with its data. They wanted to see transmission trees revealing how the cases were linked and more genetic sequencing data. Some researchers said they began to suspect that China was hiding something because it took days for officials to release sequencing results, whereas outside scientists would immediately get them.
At the same time, some experts worried that pushing too hard would irritate the Chinese authorities and derail the international response to the new outbreak. They pointed to a Wall Street Journal story in early January that pre-empted and embarrassed China’s announcement of a coronavirus by describing its findings in detail.
Some experts who spoke with Fortune declined to be identified for fear of retribution. But they said China’s leadership of the CDC is plagued by fierce competition for funding and promotions based on how many papers are published in top journals, making officials reluctant to share. Moreover, they said the government has long prioritized national security over public health and pushed back against international pressure during the COVID-19 crisis. That hasn’t changed, and it’s causing frustration for WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is trying to push for more transparency from the country.
